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Depositordc.contributorSchurer, Andrew
Funderdc.contributor.otherERC - European Research Councilen_UK
Data Creatordc.creatorSchurer, Andrew
Date Accessioneddc.date.accessioned2017-07-05T11:09:03Z
Citationdc.identifier.citationSchurer, Andrew. (2017). Supporting material for "Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits", [dataset]. University of Edinburgh. School of GeoSciences. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/ds/2092.en
Persistent Identifierdc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10283/2763
Persistent Identifierdc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.7488/ds/2092
Dataset Description (abstract)dc.description.abstractDuring the Paris Conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding ‘the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C’. However, ‘pre-industrial’ was not defined. Here we investigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood of exceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5, the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timing of exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline; for example, the probability of crossing 1.5C by the end of the century under RCP2.6 varies from 61% to 88% depending on how the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, both thresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition of the pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for threshold stabilization are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilization at 2C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40% when earlier than nineteenth-century climates are considered as a baseline.en_UK
Languagedc.language.isoengen_UK
Publisherdc.publisherUniversity of Edinburgh. School of GeoSciencesen_UK
Subjectdc.subjectGlobal climate changeen_UK
Subjectdc.subjectPaleoclimateen_UK
Subjectdc.subjectClimate change projectionen_UK
Subjectdc.subjectClimate change predictionen_UK
Subject Classificationdc.subject.classificationPhysical Sciences::Climatologyen_UK
Titledc.titleSupporting material for "Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits"en_UK
Typedc.typedataseten_UK
Embargo Datedc.date.embargo2017-12-30


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